Golden Globes Predictions 2023: Who Will Win and Should Win in Film and TV Races

Posted by Larita Shotwell on Tuesday, September 10, 2024

The Golden Globes are hoping for a comeback for its return with a host Jerrod Carmichael, and possibly some winners that the industry and audiences will approve.

As film awards season heads into phase two, with the Academy Awards nomination voting set to open on Thursday, Jan. 12, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has an opportunity to create some influence with its winners. Searchlight Pictures’ Irish comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin” leads the way with eight noms, followed closely by A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” with six. The battle in best picture (comedy or musical) will be one of the hottest of the night.

On the drama side, it could be an easy checkbox selection for Universal Pictures’ “The Fabelmans” in best picture (drama), but Warner Bros’ “Elvis” and Paramount Pictures’ “Top Gun: Maverick” are popular with many of the HFPA voters.

On the television side, the HFPA loves freshman shows and has rarely gone for the final “coronation” narrative. This is a place where HBO’s “House of the Dragon” or Apple’s “Severance” can dominate the drama races, while in comedy, watch out for ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” or FX’s “The Bear” to be the sleeper picks.

Read Variety’s breakdown of each film and television category ahead of the Jan. 10 Golden Globe Awards. Also, tune in for Variety’s live red-carpet pre-show hosted by Marc Malkin and Elizabeth Wagmeister.

To see the current rankings for each category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub. Make sure to bookmark the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines for the season.

  • Film Categories

  • Motion Picture (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) 
    • “Elvis” (Warner Bros.) 
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) 
    • “Tár” (Focus Features) 
    • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

    Will Win: “Elvis”
    Could Win: “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Close and “Bones and All”

    Remember “Bohemian Rhapsody” winning this race? The group loves musicals and biopics, and “Elvis” has been very popular in industry circles. I wouldn’t count “Tár” out of the race since the passion for the film could mimic last year’s winner “The Power of the Dog.” However, the upset pick could be the blockbuster sequel “Top Gun: Maverick,” which even shows maturity and growth for the org, following Tom Cruise returning his three Golden Globes amid the controversy.

  • Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures) 
    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures) 
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) 
    • “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix) 
    • “Triangle of Sadness” (Neon) 

    Will Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Could Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” and “RRR”

    They loved “The Banshees of Inisherin,” shown by eight leading nods, but “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is also popular in many circles. The other three nominees don’t seem to be coming within earshot of the stage, but this is the Globes we’re talking about here (hello “The Hangover”). By a smidge, I’m calling it for “Banshees.”

  • Director (Motion Picture)

    And the nominees are:

    • James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”) 
    • Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
    • Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) 
    • Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
    • Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

    Will Win: Baz Luhrmann
    Could Win: Steven Spielberg
    Should Have Been Nominated: Lukas Dhont and Chinonye Chukwu

    Cameron and Spielberg have both won this category twice, and honestly, they could do it again. I’m weary of the Daniels or McDonagh because, in the last 20 years, only two directors have won from a comedy/musical nominee — Robert Altman for “Gosford Park” (2001) and Damien Chazelle for “La La Land” (2016). That brings me to Luhrmann, on his second Globe nod, and could go along with a possible “Elvis” sweep of a night. A last-minute switch from Spielberg, I’m going with Baz.

  • Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • Austin Butler (“Elvis”) 
    • Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) 
    • Hugh Jackman (“The Son”)
    • Bill Nighy (“Living”) 
    • Jeremy Pope (“The Inspection”) 

    Will Win: Austin Butler
    Could Win: Brendan Fraser
    Should Have Been Nominated: Mehdi Bajestani (“Holy Spider”)

    The see-saw of awards season is always an unpredictable ride. It seemed like a no-brainer for Brendan Fraser to win this category for “The Whale.” Still, after losing some steam in recent weeks and not attending the Globes due to their history, this might have set up the perfect board for Austin Butler’s turn as the King of Rock and Roll to walk away with the statuette. Nighy could be a shock pick in the ranks following his LAFCA win, but that seems unlikely.

  • Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
    • Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
    • Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) 
    • Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) 
    • Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)  

    Will Win: Cate Blanchett
    Could Win: Viola Davis or Michelle Williams
    Should Have Been Nominated: Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)

    The HFPA loves Cate Blanchett, with multiple statuettes on her mantle from the org. She seems locked and loaded to win again with “Tár,” but this would be a great opportunity for Michelle Williams to assert herself as the spoiler and squeak a big win out. This category has presented its fair share of surprises in recent years with Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) and Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”). I mention that to keep an eye on Ana de Armas.

  • Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • Diego Calva (“Babylon”) 
    • Daniel Craig (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
    • Adam Driver (“White Noise”) 
    • Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
    • Ralph Fiennes (“The Menu”) 

    Will Win: Colin Farrell
    Could Win: Diego Calva
    Should Have Been Nominated: Cooper Raiff (“Cha Cha Real Smooth”)

    The easiest of the acting categories to call on the night. Farrell’s a previous winner for “In Bruges,” and if the HFPA is going all-in on “Everything Everywhere,” this is an easy place to reward the movie with the most noms.

  • Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • Lesley Manville (“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”) 
    • Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) 
    • Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Menu”) 
    • Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”) 
    • Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

    Will Win: Michelle Yeoh
    Could Win: Margot Robbie
    Should Have Been Nominated: Keke Palmer (“Nope”)

    With some history to be made, Yeoh’s win will make her the second Asian actress ever to do so after Awkwafina for “The Farewell” (2019), who failed to garner an Oscar nod. We’re expecting a much better outcome for Yeoh.

  • Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

    And the nominees are:

    • Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
    • Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
    • Brad Pitt (“Babylon”)
    • Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
    • Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”)

    Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
    Could Win: Brendan Gleeson or Barry Keoghan
    Should Have Been Nominated: Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)

    This is the one place that Ke Huy Quan could probably lose, and it wouldn’t matter on his road to the Oscar stage (similar to Kodi Smit-McPhee beating Troy Kotsur last year). Brendan Gleeson is the spoiler here, to accompany his co-stars’ win in lead actor (comedy) but vote-splitting might prevent that from happening. But as Aaron Taylor-Johnson did with “Nocturnal Animals” or Jodie Foster with “The Mauritanian,” I’m looking at Eddie Redmayne to drop some jaws in the room.

  • Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

    And the nominees are:

    • Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
    • Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
    • Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
    • Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”)
    • Carey Mulligan (“She Said”)

    Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
    Could Win: Angela Bassett or Dolly De Leon
    Should Have Been Nominated: Stephanie Hsu

    This is where the HFPA rewards good behavior and a great performer such as Jamie Lee Curtis. A two-time winner — “Anything But Love” (1989) and “True Lies” (1994). Curtis is the only actor who came out to support the group last year in the heat of the controversy and participated in their Twitter ceremony by pre-recording a video of support. But watch for them to possibly cement the front-runner status for Angela Bassett, also a former winner for “What’s Love Got to Do With It?” (1993), which made her the first, and still only Black woman ever to win best actress (comedy or musical).

  • Screenplay

    And the nominees are:

    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures) — Martin McDonagh 
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert 
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) — Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
    • “Tár” (Focus Features) — Todd Field 
    • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Sarah Polley 

    Will Win: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Could Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or “Tár”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Bones and All” and “She Said”

    Another hot race, where any of the five movies have a shot at winning. Watch out for the group to react to the backlash of not nominating any women for directing and make a very worthy selection of Sarah Polley, which would bode well for its adapted screenplay campaign. With Todd Field not nominated for directing, this also could be an easy way to recognize the auteur. It might just come down to the two comedy front-runners “Banshees” and “Everything,” with an edge going to the “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017) winner Martin McDonagh.

  • Original Score

    And the nominees are:

    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures) — Carter Burwell
    • “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat 
    • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) — Hildur Guðnadóttir 
    • “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures) — Justin Hurwitz 
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) — John Williams  

    Will Win: “Women Talking”
    Could Win: “Babylon” or “The Fabelmans”
    Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Giacchino (“The Batman”)

    Another opportunity to “make nice” on the HFPA’s snub of female filmmakers and choose Hildur Guðnadóttir, who would become the first composer to win twice. Watch out for Justin Hurwitz, a favorite of the group with wins for “La La Land” (2016) and “First Man” (2018) or the legendary John Williams for “The Fabelmans.”

  • Original Song

    And the nominees are:

    • “Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” (Sony Pictures) — Taylor Swift 
    • “Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro 
    • “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) — Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice
    • “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios) — Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler 
    • “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj 

    Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
    Could Win: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” and “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Love is Not Love” from “Bros”

    Star and music power typically reigns supreme in this category which is why it may be easy to go with Lady Gaga or Rihanna, but what will bring more joy than to recognize the Indian-Tollywood film “RRR,” with the two stars there to do a bit of the dance on stage?

  • Motion Picture (Animated)

    And the nominees are:

    • “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) 
    • “Inu-Oh” (GKIDS) 
    • “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” (A24) 
    • “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation) 
    • “Turning Red” (Pixar)

    Will Win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    Could Win: “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” or “Turning Red”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Wendell and Wild”

    Signed, sealed and delivered for Guillermo del Toro.

  • Motion Picture (Non-English Language)

    And the nominees are:

    • “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 
    • “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina) 
    • “Close” (Belgium) 
    • “Decision to Leave” (South Korea) 
    • “RRR” (India) 

    Will Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
    Could Win: “RRR”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Joyland” (Pakistan)

    “RRR” is the only film with another nod, which gives it a slight edge, but “All Quiet on the Western Front” has been on fire, and has the backing of Netflix. I think it squeaks it out.

  • Television Categories

  • TV Series (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • “Better Call Saul” (AMC) 
    • “The Crown” (Netflix) 
    • “House of the Dragon” (HBO) 
    • “Ozark” (Netflix) 
    • “Severance” (Apple TV+) 

    Will Win: “House of the Dragon”
    Could Win: “Severance”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “Yellowjackets”

    The HFPA loves new shows, such as “Boardwalk Empire” (2010), “Mr. Robot” (2015) and “The Handmaid’s Tale,” which bodes well for “House of the Dragon” and “Severance.” Or, they can go to familiar territory such as the multiple recent wins for HBO’s “Succession.” That could help Netflix’s “The Crown” nab its third win since 2016. Let’s give the edge to the “Dragon.”

  • TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) 
    • “The Bear” (FX)
    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) 
    • “Wednesday” (Netflix) 

    Will Win: “The Bear”
    Could Win: “Abbott Elementary”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “The Afterparty”

    Avid lovers of freshman series, the group hasn’t repeated a comedy series winner since the two consecutive years of “Glee” in 2009 and 2010 (by Carol Burnett Award recipient Ryan Murphy). “Hacks” just won last year, so I think it’s unlikely to repeat here. This seems down to “Abbott Elementary” and “The Bear,” with a possibility for “Wednesday” to come up the middle, emulating past winners such as “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (2013) and “Mozart of the Jungle” (2015). I think some international members have an easier time connecting to chefs rather than teachers in Philadelphia.

  • Limited Series or TV Movie

    And the nominees are:

    • “Black Bird” (Apple TV+) 
    • “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix) 
    • “The Dropout” (Hulu) 
    • “Pam & Tommy” (Hulu) 
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO) 

    Will Win: “The White Lotus”
    Could Win: “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” or “The Dropout”
    Should Have Been Nominated: “The Patient”

    This is where the HFPA has a solid track record of not only choosing refreshing winners such as “The Underground Railroad” (2021) but having a correlation to the Emmys with series such as “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story” (2016), “Big Little Lies” (2017) and “The Queen’s Gambit” (2020) all beginning or ending its triumphant TV Academy runs. While I feel they’re tempted to give it to their Carol Burnett Award recipient Ryan Murphy for “Monster,” they could swing towards “The White Lotus” after snubbing it completely last year.

  • TV Actor (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) 
    • Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”)
    • Diego Luna (“Andor”)
    • Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
    • Adam Scott (“Severance”)

    Will Win: Bob Odenkirk
    Could Win: Jeff Bridges
    Should Have Been Nominated: Jason Bateman

    It’s the final dance they can do with Bob Odenkirk for “Better Call Saul,” and they’ve rewarded final season actors before like Jon Hamm for “Mad Men” (2015). By a hair, Odenkirk over Bridges.

  • TV Actress (Drama)

    And the nominees are:

    • Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) 
    • Laura Linney (“Ozark”) 
    • Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”)
    • Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”)
    • Zendaya (“Euphoria”)

    Will Win: Zendaya
    Could Win: Imelda Staunton
    Should Have Been Nominated: Britt Lower (“Severance”)

    It’s the first time they’ve nominated Zendaya, and with an opportunity to have one of the biggest stars in the world on their stage, I don’t think they’ll pass it up. However, Imelda Staunton could get a large contingency playing Queen Elizabeth II, which former “Crown” actors like Olivia Colman and Claire Foy have previously won.

  • TV Actor (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) 
    • Bill Hader (“Barry”) 
    • Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
    • Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
    • Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) 

    Will Win: Jeremy Allen White
    Could Win: Steve Martin
    Should Have Been Nominated: Nathan Fielder (“The Rehearsal”)

    With Jason Sudeikis finally out of the running for “Ted Lasso,” there’s a chance to welcome a newcomer like Jeremy Allen White for “The Bear.” Funny enough, despite two Emmy wins for “Barry,” Bill Hader has never won, and with his return, he could be a sentimental choice, as could either of the veterans’ Steve Martin and Martin Short.

  • TV Actress (Comedy or Musical)

    And the nominees are:

    • Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) 
    • Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”) 
    • Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) 
    • Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) 
    • Jean Smart (“Hacks”) 

    Will Win: Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”)
    Could Win: Quinta Brunson or Selena Gomez
    Should Have Been Nominated: Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”)

    Coming off rewarding Jean Smart last year, she’s not out of the question for another trophy, considering they gave it to Rachel Brosnahan twice for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” However, two fun newcomers are right before them: Quinta Brunson and breakout star Jenna Ortega. Going with a surprise pick of Ortega.

  • TV Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    And the nominees are:

    • Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) 
    • Colin Firth (“The Staircase”) 
    • Andrew Garfield (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
    • Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
    • Sebastian Stan (“Pam & Tommy”) 

    Will Win: Evan Peters
    Could Win: Taron Egerton or Sebastian Stan
    Should Have Been Nominated: Steve Carell (“The Patient”)

    Evan Peters, by a mile. Next.

  • TV Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    And the nominees are:

    • Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) 
    • Julia Garner (“Inventing Anna”) 
    • Lily James (“Pam & Tommy”) 
    • Julia Roberts (“Gaslit”) 
    • Amanda Seyfried (“The Dropout”) 

    Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
    Could Win: Lily James
    Should Have Been Nominated: Toni Collette (“The Staircase”)

    Even though Lily James is creeping up on Amanda Seyfried, I suspect the latter will complete her sweep on the TV circuit for her stunning turn in the Hulu series.

  • Supporting Actor in a TV Series (Drama/Comedy)

    And the nominees are:

    • John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) 
    • Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”) 
    • John Turturro (“Severance”) 
    • Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) 
    • Henry Winkler (“Barry”)

    Will Win: John Turturro
    Could Win: Tyler James Williams
    Should Have Been Nominated: Chris Perfetti

    It’s the first time the HFPA has divided its supporting television categories, which could open things up for some newcomers like Tyler James Williams, especially as a way to reward “Abbott” if they can’t do it elsewhere. But I’m also looking at a way for them to reward “Severance, ” which could be John Turturro’s brave work.

  • Supporting Actress in a TV Series (Drama/Comedy)

    And the nominees are:

    • Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) 
    • Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) 
    • Julia Garner (“Ozark”) 
    • Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”) 
    • Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”) 

    Will Win: Elizabeth Debicki
    Could Win: Sheryl Lee Ralph
    Should Have Been Nominated: Rhea Seehorn

    Conventional wisdom says the Globes may want a possible repeat moment of Sheryl Lee Ralph moving mountains from the Emmys when she won. However, Debicki’s Princess Diana seems ripe for their choosing, especially given their rewarding of Emma Corrin in TV actress (drama) two years ago.

  • Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    And the nominees are:

    • F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”) 
    • Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”) 
    • Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) 
    • Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
    • Seth Rogen (“Pam & Tommy”) 

    Will Win: F. Murray Abraham
    Could Win: Richard Jenkins
    Should Have Been Nominated: Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”)

    This seems a good place to give love to “The White Lotus” and who else than F. Murray Abraham? Actually, Richard Jenkins could go along with a Ryan Murphy lovefest so watch out for him.

  • Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

    And the nominees are:

    • Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”) 
    • Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) 
    • Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Under the Banner of Heaven”) 
    • Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) 
    • Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus”) 

    Will Win: Niecy Nash
    Could Win: Jennifer Coolidge or Aubrey Plaza
    Should Have Been Nominated: Laurie Metcalf (“The Dropout”)

    Even though the group didn’t do Jennifer Coolidge last year, they could easily do it now, but I suspect she might be splitting votes with her co-star Aubrey Plaza. That might allow one of the bright spots of “Monster” to come away with a Niecy Nash-Betts win, who despite having four Emmy nods, is celebrating her first Golden Globe one.

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